The Indian rupee opened stronger on Wednesday, drawing support from softer oil prices, while a jump in US Treasury yields after inflation rose faster than expected could be ?a dampener. Brent crude slid below $90 a barrel for the first time since August on Tuesday after US officials played down the need for further military action against Iran, tempering fears of additional disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. While prices have recovered from their lows of $92.20, they remain more than 6% down this week, following a decline of over 16% last week. Lower oil prices offer the rupee relief from one of its biggest pressure points in recent months. High crude prices had kept the currency under sustained pressure, driving up dollar demand from oil importers and prompting the Reserve Bank of India to open ?a special window for oil refiners to meet their dollar requirements outside the market. The RBI's efforts to address dollar demand, alongside a revival in foreign equity inflows, have helped the rupee recover more than 3% from its recent lows. India has benefited from investors reassessing their concentrated bets on AI-linked shares and looking to diversify into other markets. However, after the rupee's recent rally, the level is looking very attractive for importers, particularly with the risk from US Treasury yields coming into play, he said. US Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday after data showed that US consumer prices rose more than economists expected in October, leading traders to bolster bets on a larger interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The dollar held gains near a two-week high in early Asian trade on Wednesday as a hotter-than-expected inflation report and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials fuelled bets the central bank will raise rates next ?month. The US dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was steady at 102.22, closing in on its highest level since October 28. The dollar held onto its gains against its major peers in early Asian trade. The euro and the British pound were flat at $1.1168 and $1.3345, respectively. Against the yen , the US dollar was unchanged at 158.715 yen. The Australian dollar was up 0.1% at $0.6870, edging back ?from a seven-month low, while the New Zealand dollar was flat at $0.5605. Fed funds futures now imply a 91.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike next month, up from 84% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. ?Markets have fully priced out the possibility of a pause and see a 9.1% chance of a larger 50-basis-point move, while assigning better-than-even odds to a second hike in January. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was up 13.8 basis points at 4.996%. Oil prices rose on Wednesday after falling to two-month lows in the previous session, as the market swung between hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran war and concerns about ongoing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent ?futures climbed 71 cents, or 0.78%, to $92.20 a barrel by 0119 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 49 cents, or 0.57%, to $86.53.
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The euro rebounded on Tuesday and was on pace for its strongest move higher in a month after falling to its lowest in 17 months in the prior day, as a pullback in French government bond yields cooled fears about strain in euro zone debt markets. The euro zone's currency climbed 0.28%, on track for its biggest daily gain since September 3, at $1.1252. the currency had slid to its lowest since May 2025 on Monday at $1.116, following a drop of more than 1% in the prior week, its fourth straight weekly decline. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.26% to 101.89 and was on pace for its biggest daily drop since September 25. Bond markets around the world have seen yields rise due to expectations of sharp central bank rate hikes as energy prices have jumped due to the US-Israeli war with Iran and fanned inflation, as well as concerns about government finances. France is at the heart of the European market concerns. The French government is seeking to enact an unpopular 2027 budget to lower its deficit and contain its record-high debt load, a tall order in a deeply divided parliament as political factions position ahead of next year's presidential election. With inflation already rising on soaring energy costs and higher yields increasing household and corporate borrowing costs, further euro weakening could leave the European Central Bank caught between fighting inflation and calming bond markets.
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