North Korean crisis averted, but tensions remain dangerously high

As tensions between the United States and North Korea continue to escalate, officials in Pyongyang snubbed their Chinese counterparts in a sign of what experts say is a deteriorating relationship between the regime of Kim Jong-un and one of its few international allies.

Following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with President Trump in Florida earlier this month, North Korea denied a request by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Wu Dawei, the country’s top representative for North Korean nuclear affairs, for a meeting.

North Korea denying China a meeting is illustrative of the difficulty that China faces because they need a communication channel that works. China has long been considered North Korea’s closest ally in Asia, but the relationship has been on a rocky path the last few years. Tensions have escalated the past few months as North Korea has become more provocative and a growing international threat.

A failed test of a medium-range ballistic missile that blew up almost immediately Sunday did not provoke a U.S. military response. Even so, North Korea has made progress with its nuclear weapons and missile programs and is led by an unpredictable dictator, Kim Jong Un, who views America’s new president as a threat. That won't change anytime soon.

President Trump has vowed that he will not allow North Korea to develop a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon that can strike the United States, and Kim has vowed to pursue that very goal to prevent a pre-emptive U.S. strike. Last week, North Korea warned that the two countries were edging toward nuclear war.

The U.S. military was watching North Korea intently Saturday as it marked the 105th birthday of founding leader Kim Il Sung, the grandfather of Kim Jong Un. The North traditionally marks the occasion with shows of military strength, including nuclear or missile tests. This time, it paraded its latest missile hardware through the capital Pyongyang, showing off many new weapons. They included a new short-range missile and the country’s latest submarine-launched missile.

In advance of the celebration, the Pentagon dispatched a carrier group to waters off the Korean peninsula, and Trump delivered an unspecified threat: “North Korea is a problem,” he said. “The problem will be taken care of.”

Political tensions between the United States and North Korea also are heightened because Trump is in the first months of his presidency, and North Korea may be testing him to see how he reacts. Trump's answer: He is willing to unleash military power to eliminate any threat to the U.S. homeland. But Trump hasn't ruled out non-military pressure by urging China — North Korea's economic lifeline — to rein in its volatile neighbor to the south.

Last week the United States dropped one of the biggest conventional bombs in its arsenal — a 22,000-pound behemoth — on an Islamic State cave and tunnel network in Afghanistan, an action that captured worldwide attention.

Before that, the U.S. military fired 59 cruise missiles at an airbase in Syria in retaliation for President Bashar Assad's alleged use of chemical weapons on civilians in a rebel-held city.The Pentagon said the Afghanistan and Syrian strikes were not meant to send a broader message, but North Korea surely was watching closely and drawing lessons from Trump's willingness to use military power.

It doesn't appear to have cooled the rhetoric or actions of North Korean leaders. North Korea Vice Minister Han Song Ryol told the Associated Press on Friday that his country has determined the Trump administration is "more vicious and more aggressive" than that of President Barack Obama, and is preparing for war.

The Trump administration has ratcheted up pressure on North Korea in recent weeks to dismantle its nascent nuclear program – igniting an escalating war of words between the U.S. leader and officials in Pyongyang and widespread worries from nearby Asian nations of a major armed conflict between the two countries.

North Korea’s mounting nuclear ambitions has cast a pall over much of East Asia with its recent missile tests and prompted the militaries of Japan and South Korea to go on high alert. The mounting threat from North Korea forced Trump to send the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group to the Korean peninsula – a maneuver that drew a warning of “catastrophic consequences” from Pyongyang but widespread praise from Tokyo and Seoul.

For its part, North Korea has long insisted that the goal of its military build-up is peace — and survival — with the growing arsenal a way to ensure that the government in Pyongyang is not easily overthrown. North Korea saw the toppling of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gadhafi in Libya — neither of whom had nuclear weapons — as proof of the power of a nuclear arsenal.

At the moment, China must perform a delicate balancing act as it tries to end the intensifying situation without any weapons being fired. The big question, however, is how China will respond if either the U.S. or North Korea fires that first shot.

“China is sworn to defend North Korea from attack but if North Korea initiates the hostilities, China has said it cannot depend on its support".

“China, however, has made no indication whether or not that support would be there if the U.S. attacked first.”