EURO RECOVERS AS ECB DECIDES ON RATES

The EUR/USD pair bounced from the lower end of its weekly range and trades around 1.1630 amid first-tier events going on. The US has just published the preliminary estimate of its Q3 Gross Domestic Product, which printed at 2.0% QoQ, below the 2.7% expected. Also, Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices in the same period jumped to.5.3%, above the 4% expected and hinting at persistent inflationary pressures. The country also published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 22, which contracted to 281K, beating the 290K expected.

Earlier in the day, Germany published the preliminary estimate of its October Consumer Price Index, which rose to 4.6%YoY. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has maintained its monetary policy unchanged, as widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde is offering a press conference, but it seems she will stick to her guns.

There were no relevant changes to the accompanying statement, and Lagarde insists that inflation will likely be temporal and decrease next year. However, when asked about what they have been discussing these days, her answer was "inflation, inflation, inflation," somehow denying her previous words. Inflation is a concern for European policymakers, and if the pressure remains, it's pretty clear that they won't be able to keep ignoring it. She also added that she believes the PEPP program will end on March 2022 as originally planned. The EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips above the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily decline at 1.1615. The daily chart provides a mildly bullish stance, as the pair is recovering above its 20 SMA, while technical indicators are neutral-to-bullish at around their midlines.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair offers a mildly positive stance, as the price is currently advancing beyond its 20 and 100 SMA, although below a bearish 200 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators are crossing their midlines into positive levels with firmly bullish slopes. Still, the pair needs to surpass the next Fibonacci resistance level at 1.1670 to actually gain bullish traction.