CURRENCY OVERVIEW
The Indian rupee strengthens at start and is poised to rally despite weakness across Asian peers, with offshore traders cutting bets against the Asian currency and expectations of continued central bank dollar selling lending support.Previously having settled at 95.0550 to the dollar on Thursday. Other Asian currencies dipped and the dollar index inched higher. There has been a fair amount of unwinding of long USD/INR positions this week, That is supporting the rupee in the non-deliverable forward market and with the Reserve Bank of India "quite determined" to push the rupee higher, there's probably more room for long dollar positions to be cut. The rupee has charted its own course this week, buoyed by a series of measures by the RBI to curb dollar demand and support the currency. he measures included a reserve requirement on certain large foreign-exchange transactions for forward dollar purchases. However, a lack of clarity over which transactions were covered sowed confusion among bankers, triggering significant turbulence n India's FX forward market. Several banks held back from quoting prices to other banks, contributing to a drop in liquidity and exacerbating price moves. Seeking to address the concerns, the RBI issued clarification after market hours on Thursday. Despite clarifcation which seem useful to most, still leave a few uncertain doubt. As such the Rupee forward premiums have surged this week amid a liquidity squeeze and banks cutting positions. The treasury official said the clarifications should help alleviate these market dislocations. The dollar headed for its first weekly fall in five weeks on Friday, lifting the euro from a 17-month low as wobbles in AI investment and drop in US yields put the brakes on recent gains. Moves in the Asia morning were slight, leaving the dollar down 0.2% this week at 158.13 yen and shedding about 0.1% to $1.1210 per euro . The reversal has come not a moment too soon for the common currency, which over the previous five weeks had dropped more than 3% on the dollar on jitters about France's growing debt pile and a winter energy squeeze. AI stocks have cratered this week and the stress spread to parts of the credit market as investors who have crowded in to bets all along the AI supply chain worry that data centre operators might not manage to be profitable in time to pay their debts. With the market positioned long in dollars, more AI wobbles could unwind that and push the dollar down further. Sterling was steady at $1.3270 for a weekly rise of 0.3%, helped by data showing Britain's economy unexpectedly grew 0.1% in August. The New Zealand dollar looked likely to scratch out a weekly gain of 0.1% at $0.5621. Oil prices edged down on Friday morning as investors weighed Middle East risks and possible US steps to ease restrictions on the world’s "shadow fleet" of tankers. Brent crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.39%, to $105.51 a barrel by 0012 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 54 cents, or 0.55%, to $97.43. WTI settled up more than 3% on Thursday after a large US crude stock draw helped support prices, while Brent crude was little changed. The Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on some so-called shadow fleet vessels that have transported oil and petroleum products from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela, in an effort to reduce record-high global freight rates, a US official said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis and renewed attacks on ships in the region supported prices. Gold prices held near $4,160 an ounce on Friday after rising to a two-week high, as a selloff in equities prompted investors to seek safety in bonds and pushed U.S Treasury yields lower. Gold rose 1.6% in the previous session, its biggest advance in more than two weeks, recovering losses after investors shifted out of equities and into bonds.Technically, gold is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.86% to 17,085 contracts while prices gained Rs. 1,641. The market is finding support at Rs. 147,040, below which prices could test Rs. 146,600. Resistance is placed at Rs. 147,990, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 148,500. Investors are now looking for further guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to speak at an International Monetary Fund meeting in Bangkok at 10:30 a.m. local time on Friday.
www.eforexindia.com