CURRENCY OVERVIEW

 

The Indian rupee opens modestly stronger on Friday, soothed by a retreat in oil prices and expectations of foreign portfolio inflows linked to a large initial public offering, ‌though the currency remains on track for a weekly decline. Oil prices eased on Friday, extending losses into a third session, as hopes of alternate ways for barrels from the Middle East to reach markets outweighed concerns about strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis. Brent oil was last down 0.7% at $104.1 per barrel. Oil remains ‌key, as prices at $80 per barrel or above, coupled with seasonal deterioration in the current account deficit toward the end of Q3, remain key risks to INR.  Elsewhere, Asian currencies were trading between 0.1% and 0.4% stronger while regional stocks also gained. investors contended with the twin headwinds of escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising U.S. Treasury yields.attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West ‌pipeline last week pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel, while firmer U.S Treasury yields reinforced the dollar's appeal, creating a challenging environment for emerging Asian currencies. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% on Friday in a widely expected move to forestall risks of inflation overshooting its 2% inflation target. At a two-day policy meeting that ended on Friday, the board decided by a 7-2 vote to raise its policy rate from 1%. Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissented to the decision. The yen has rallied this month on expectations of a faster pace of rate hikes from the BOJ and early signs of repatriation from Japanese investors but has given up some of those gains this week as the US central bank took a hawkish turn. The bank of England warned on Thursday it may have to hike if the Middle East war drags on while the Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday for the first time in three years and flagged more in the coming months. The European Central Bank last week also cautioned the need for further tightening as it raised rates. Hopes of alternate ways for oil supply from the Middle East to reach markets pushed Brent crude futures down as much as 1.5% to $103.29 a barrel even as concerns about strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis lingered. Brent crude futures fell 79 cents, or 0.75%, to $104 a barrel by 0319 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures fell 70 cents, or 0.69%, to $101.20 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed down about 1% on Thursday. Brent prices are on track for their first weekly loss in three, down 0.5%, while WTI is set to gain 1.2%.  The Canadian dollar steadied near a six-week low against its US counterpart on Thursday and bond yields fell, with a wider gap between the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve ‌and the Bank of Canada helping to underpin the greenback.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3985 per US dollar, or 71.51 US cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since August 7 at 1.4001.

 

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