CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Indian rupee opened stronger on Friday as it will draw support from a return of foreign capital to Indian markets after months of sustained outflows, with a technology rout offering a tailwind for capital flows into Asia's ‌third-largest economy.The Indian currency, which has remained under pressure for much of the year and relied heavily on central bank intervention for support, has found relief this week from two factors ?that had weighed on it for months — oil prices and equity flows. Oil prices have retreated on expectations that the Republican Party's losses in the US midterm elections could constrain President Donald Trump's political room to sustain the conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, foreign investors have been buying Indian equities, with the retreat from AI-linked technology stocks offering a potential boost to markets that had lost out amid capital chasing the AI trade. Foreign investors bought ?a net $1.6 billion of Indian equities on Thursday, their biggest single-day purchase in nearly six years, according to provisional exchange data. This followed net purchases of about $2.2 billion ?over the previous four sessions. The dollar held steady against major currencies on Friday, after a sharp selloff in US equities drove investors toward haven assets such as the yen and pushed Treasury yields lower ahead of a closely watched government payrolls report. Fears of tighter scrutiny of the artificial intelligence industry, particularly around data centre construction, has roiled global markets this week. The equity rout prompted investors to ?find shelter in bonds and haven currencies. The yen strengthened 0.2% to a one-week high of ?157.40 a US dollar before reversing some of that gain. The Swiss franc firmed 0.2% against the US currency. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was roughly flat at 101.55. The flight to safety drove the 10-year Treasury yield down overnight. It was last trading at 4.84% in the Asian morning, near its lowest level since September 10. The two-year yield , which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell about 10 basis points overnight to 4.47%. The move in bonds also reflected a repricing of Federal Reserve ‌expectations, ?with fed funds futures scaling back the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in December to around 70% from more than 80% on Wednesday, traders said. The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.1222, but poised for a 0.5% rise for the week, ending two weeks of loss. Oil prices are set for a sharp weekly drop on expectations of a de-escalation of the Iran war after US President Donald Trump's party suffered election losses, but Middle East supply concerns ‌from the conflict continue to provide a floor for the market. Brent crude futures for January rose on Friday by $1.57, or 1.6%, to $99.86 a barrel as of 0222 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate ?futures climbed $1.10, or 1.22% to $91.62 a barrel. Both contracts gained for a second day.

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