RUPEE OVERVIEW

The rupee opened lower against  the US dollar at 75.80 as  the US dollar today because the US Federal Reserve's grim outlook on the US economy compelled investors to turn away from riskier assets. Several countries had imposed lockdowns for last few months to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which brought economic activity to a halt.Amid weak growth across the globe, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was "not even thinking about raising rates" also because US consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in May--the longest stretch of decline ever.Powell also highlighted that recovery would be a long road and interest rates would remain near zero till the end of 2022, which was more accommodative than market players' expectations.While concerns about India's weak growth and strain on the government finances make a case for rupee's depreciation going ahead, dealers believe unless the Indian unit falls beyond the technical support level of 75.90 a dollar, the currency pair will move in a range of 75.35-75.95.On Wednesday, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its "BBB-" rating on India and left the outlook unchanged at "stable", although the agency said it expects a meaningful fall in the fiscal deficit in 2021-22 (Apr-Mar).The agency also said downward pressure on India's rating could emerge over the next one to two years if GDP growth "fails to meaningfully recover from 2021 onwards, and its trend growth rate falls towards the average of its peers". We expect exporters to sell the greenback around 75.80 a dollar which may support the Indian currency. Moreover, the anticipation of foreign fund inflows from overseas investors who are looking to invest in Indian companies may also refrain traders from placing large bets against the Indian currency as well. The RBI is also expected to sell the greenback around 75.90 a dollar.