CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Rupee opens flat on Tuesday. Rising oil prices continue to weigh on the outlook for the Indian rupee, with traders watching for support near a key technical level and the response of the central bank. The Indian currency's recovery towards 94.30 last week, driven largely by central bank intervention and one-off inflows, is being tested by a lack of macroeconomic support. Portfolio flows remain weak, while fragile sentiment towards the rupee is encouraging companies to step up hedging, adding to the currency's vulnerabilities. The rupee came under sustained pressure on Monday despite signs of RBI dollar selling, underscoring ‌the challenge facing the central bank. Traders see 95.30 as a key level to watch, given the RBI's more aggressive intervention around that level. A sustained break could expose the rupee to a deeper decline towards 96 per dollar. The dollar index held steady near a one-week high on Tuesday at 102.04 as a tech-led rebound on Wall Street revived appetite for risk, while investors await megacap earnings and the US midterm elections. Risk appetite returned overnight after Anthropic's IPO filing and Meta's $95 billion equity plan rekindled the artificial intelligence trade. The dollar was also underpinned by a weaker euro , which fell to a near two-week low against the greenback as worries over France's fiscal health piled pressure on the single currency. The euro last fetched $1.1165, down about 1.4% this month. A selloff in French government bonds that drove the country's debt-risk premium to ?its highest since the 2011 sovereign debt crisis has rekindled concerns about financial stress across the euro zone. The Japanese yen eased against the US dollar on Tuesday, further eroding last week's safe-haven gains, underpinned by a risk-on mood and by the weaker euro ahead of key central bank meetings this week that will influence the global rates outlook. The yen ‌was 0.16% weaker at 157.73 per dollar, inching further away from the one-month high it touched last week ahead of the Bank of Japan policy decision later this week. The yen had lost ground on Monday too. The yen was among the best-performing major currencies last week, as AI jitters in the equity market spurred a haven rush into the currency. Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as the potential for a ‌resolution in the US-Israeli war on Iran kept supply fears at bay, but Brent stayed close to six-month highs as attacks on Saudi Arabia lowered hopes of immediate stability in the region. Brent crude futures were down 66 cents, or 0.57%, at $115.15 a barrel as of 0000 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 44 cents, ?or 0.43%, at $101.32. Last ?week, Brent prices surged to more than $117 a barrel, the highest level since April, after a wave of Iranian attacks on tankers around the strait. Brent prices touched $117 on Monday ?as well.

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