CURRENCY OVERVIEW
The Rupee opened weak on Thursday and could weaken past 94 per U.S. dollar, ?pressured by oil climbing back above $100 a barrel, underscoring that the relief rally has run its course. The currency has already lost ?nearly 1% this week and slipped well past its recent highs ?near 92.50, a level reached largely on the back of support ?measures by the Reserve Bank late last month and again in ?April. We expect 94 to be "taken out right" at the open,” said a currency ?trader at a private sector bank. The drop past that level will just reinforces what has been playing out - that the move from 95 to 92.50 was a relief ?rally, and with oil well past $100, that trade looks done, he ?said. The RBI has been selling dollars over the last couple of sessions to keep ?a lid on the rupee's slide, traders said. However, the currency has run into heavy demand from oil companies and very thin dollar supply, they added. While the intervention has helped slow the pace of the rupee's ?decline, it has ?so far fallen ?short of arresting the broader downtrend. Brent settled above $100 first the time in more than two ?weeks on Wednesday, last at $103.24, on stalled peace talks ?between ?Iran and the United States, and continued restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz fuelling supply concerns. With both Iran and the U.S. blocking the strait, the standoff appears ?to "be ?a case of brinkmanship," ANZ Bank said ?in a note. Each day that the waterway remains closed, the risks of energy shortages and ?inflation intensify, the bank said. The ?dollar wobbled near a 1-1/2-week high on Thursday as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. in the Middle East war and lack of progress in peace talks pulled oil prices back above $100 per barrel, weighing on investor sentiment. The euro was fetching $1.1712, having touched its ?lowest since April 13 earlier in the session. The single currency is headed for a 0.4% decline in the ?week, its first drop in four weeks. Sterling stood at $1.3497. The Australian dollar was steady at $0.7165, not far from the four-year high it touched last week. The New Zealand dollar traded at $0.59045 . Against the yen , the U.S. dollar nudged down 0.02% ?to 159.48 yen. The dollar benefited in March on safe-haven demand as the war erupted but the prospect ?of a peace deal and a ceasefire at the start of this month spurred a risk-on rally, with the greenback giving ?up most of its gains. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, was at 98.644, near its highest level since April 13. The index is on track for a moderate 0.4% gain this week following two weekly drops. The nearly two-month war in the Middle ?East has led ?to soaring fuel prices, eroding consumer confidence to a record low and wiping out market pricing for rate cuts this year. The U.S. Federal Reserve will wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, ?according to ?a Reuters poll of economists, as war-driven energy shocks reignite already-elevated ?inflation. Focus will be on U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and PMIs due to be released later on Thursday for clues on whether the impact of soaring ?energy prices is filtering through to the broader economy. Gold ?fell in choppy trade on Thursday as elevated oil prices fuelled fears of inflation and prolonged high interest rates, while investors looked for clarity on stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,705.09 per ounce, as of 0215 GMT. U.S. gold ?futures for June delivery fell 0.6% to $4,722.10.
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