CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Rupee opened weak under pressure following weakness in Asian peers, while traders expect the central bank's well established support zone to limit losses, holding the pair inside a narrow range. Currency traders said the rupee will likely continue in a rangebound phase on Monday, stuck between regional cues and the Reserve Bank of India's staunch defence of the 88.80 level, barring a significant turn in Fed rate expectations or definitive news on a U.S.–India trade deal. The rupee moved in a band of just over 20 paise last week, underscoring how tightly controlled the pair has been amid predictable RBI activity. Bankers said that the outlook is unlikely to shift substantially unless USD/INR pushes beyond 88.80 into new record low territory. Asian currencies traded lower on Monday with the Taiwenese dollar and the Korean pacing declines, while the dollar index inched up. Investors are eyeing a host of U.S. economic data now that the federal shutdown is over, looking for hints about which way the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision may go. The heavily scrutinised September non-farm payrolls report is due on Thursday. The market response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to roll back tariffs on more than 200 food items was largely subdued. Analysts noted that the shift had been widely expected considering cost-of-living pressures.  The dollar firmed slightly on Monday as investors braced for the release of a slew of U.S. economic data following the ending of the government's shutdown, hoping it will add clarity to the Federal Reserve's rate outlook in December. Elsewhere, sterling remained under pressure following a whirlwind Friday session as speculation swirled around the UK government's highly anticipated November 26 budget. The safe-haven Swiss franc hovered around a one-month high and last stood at 0.7941 per dollar, finding support from jitters over an ugly selloff in stock markets recently. The focus this week will be on various U.S. data releases for clues on the health of the world's largest economy, with the closely watched September's nonfarm payrolls report due on Thursday. Currency moves were subdued in early Asia trade on Monday ahead of the releases, with the euro down 0.11% to $1.1607 while the Australian dollar reversed some of its gains from last week and eased 0.15% to $0.6527. The New Zealand dollar similarly fell 0.12% to $0.5673, while the U.S. dollar index rose slightly to 99.37. The British pound traded 0.11% lower at $1.3161 on Monday, following sharp swings at the end of last week on news that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has no plans to raise income tax rates in the upcoming budget. That alarmed investors who had been anticipating a rise to help fill an expected fiscal shortfall, sparking a surge in government borrowing costs on Friday. In other currencies, the yen languished near the 155 per dollar level and last stood at 154.60, leaving traders alert to the threat of intervention from Japanese authorities to stem the yen's decline. It hardly reacted to data on Monday which showed Japan's economy contracted an annualised 1.8% in the July-September quarter, the first fall in six quarters, due to a hit to exports from U.S. tariffs. Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday, erasing last week's gains, as loadings resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk after a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack. Brent crude futures dropped 58 cents, or 0.9%, to $63.81 a barrel at 0050 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $59.50 a barrel, down 59 cents, or 1.0% from Friday's close.

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