CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Indian rupee declines on Thursday, with higher oil prices and US Treasury yields piling pressure on the currency while fading October Federal Reserve rate hike bets offer little ‌relief. The rupee has pared losses from around 96.14 per dollar, which it hit on Tuesday, aided by likely Reserve Bank of India intervention, with traders saying the central bank appears intent on preventing a sustained break past the 96 level. The dollar held near a two-month high on Thursday, supported by an extended rise in US Treasury yields partly driven by concerns over persistent global price pressures ‌stemming from the ME War. The odds of a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting dropped to below 40%. They were more than 70% a week back. US bond yields posted their biggest monthly rise in years in September, with the ongoing Middle East conflict keeping oil prices high and fuelling concerns over the inflation outlook. The 10-year yields posted their biggest quarterly jump since 2009. Against the dollar, the euro was marginally lower at $1.1330 in the early Asian session. It clocked a loss of nearly 2.5% in September, the largest since July ?2025, pressured by Europe's debt and energy worries. Sterling was flat at $1.3264 after having slid 2.1% last month, similarly weighed down by a stronger greenback. The dollar was perched near a two-month high against a basket of currencies and last stood at 101.48, after rising 2% in September. Elsewhere, the yen fell 0.2% to 157.82 per dollar, though it posted a gain of nearly 1.5% last month. The Australian dollar fell to a two-month low of $0.6940 on Thursday, as investors lengthened the odds on another near-term rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia after domestic inflation came in slightly lower than forecast. Oil prices were nearly flat in early Asia trade on Thursday, following the previous day's gains and steep monthly rises, as investors assessed the outcome of US- Iran peace talks and the outlook for Middle East crude exports. Brent crude ‌futures rose 12 cents or 0.1%, to $98.15 a barrel by 0045 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.35 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1%. Spot gold held its price just above $4,155 per ounce in the early session on October 1, while US gold futures traded with a 0.10 percent increase to $4,191 per ounce (02:06 GMT). The domestic spot gold closed the Wednesday (Sept. 30) session up 0.46 percent to Rs 1,47,613 per 10 grams, while silver held its price at Rs 2,21,110 per kilogram. MCX gold futures for the December 4 delivery inched 0.06 percent to Rs 1,46,200 per 10 grams, and silver futures edged 0.76 percent down to Rs 2,23,740 per kilogram from its previous close.