CURRENCY OVERVIEW

 

The Indian rupee ended little changed on Monday, wedged between pressures from a broadly firmer dollar, higher oil prices and likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, ‌which kept the currency moored in a thin trading range. The rupee closed at 96.2925 per dollar, barely changed from its close at 96.3150 in the previous session. The dollar started the week on firm footing, hovering near a 17-month high on Monday. The greenback was boosted by weakness in the euro ?amid worries over France's fiscal situation and knocked Asian currencies between 0.1% to 0.5% lower. The lingering pressures have left the rupee reliant on central bank interventions to avert testing record low levels hit in May. On trade policy, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday that talks between India and the United States have reached a plateau and further concessions might be difficult. The focus is now on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, where market participants widely expect a 25 basis point increase ?in benchmark rates. A global bond market rout, which has pushed yields in the ‌US and other developed markets to multi-decade highs, has further pressured the rupee. It is down nearly 7% against the dollar so far this year. The rupee, on average, has weakened around 1% a month in 2026. At that pace, it would reach the psychologically significant 100-per-dollar level within six months, a threshold many foreign ‌exchange market ?participants expect the authorities to try to avoid. he euro slid to a 17-month low against the dollar on Monday as concerns about France's ability to rein in its budget deficit and a sharp bond market selloff last week stirred fears of a return of sovereign debt crisis dynamics in ‌the euro zone. French government bonds have come under pressure as expectations of higher policy rates and rising political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election cast doubt on the ability of the euro area's second-largest economy to put its public finances on a more sustainable footing. The euro sank to as low as $1.1161 in Asian hours, its weakest since May 2025, and was last down 0.47% at $1.12. The single currency recorded on Friday its  fourth straight weekly fall against the dollar, its steepest in around four months. The single currency dropped 1.8% against the Swiss franc since last Thursday and was last down 0.32% to 0.9295. The euro's appeal as the market's primary alternative to the greenback was already fading after the Federal Reserve's September rate hike, but last week's sharp widening in French bond spreads dealt a further blow, analysts said. Gold prices ticked up on Monday, ‌as investors lowered their expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hike rates this month, although a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields limited the gains. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,152.19 per ounce by 09:26 a.m. EDT (1326 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery added 0.4% to $4,180.30. Among other metals, silver rose 1.9% to $61.53 per ounce, platinum gained 1.6% to $1,724.65 and palladium added 1.2% to $1,181.75.

 

 

 

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