CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Rupee closed weaker on Monday as a fall in local equities and marginal slip in Asian currencies weighed on the currency, while traders remained cautious on speculative positions as the rupee settles into a fresh trading range. Likely portfolio outflows from local stocks troubled the rupee on the day, traders said, while a pick up in exporter hedging and intermittent dollar sales from state-run banks helped keep a lid on its decline. Foreign investors have sold over $1 billion of local stocks on a net basis over December so far, putting the year-to-date outflows at nearly $18 billion. Both the rupee and equities have underperformed regional benchmarks this year. The rupee is down about 5% this year, making it the worst performing currency in Asia. The Nifty 50 has risen over 9%, but the gain pales in comparison to the 25% jump in MSCI's gauge of Asian stocks outside of Japan. While foreign brokerages have incrementally turned positive on the outlook for local stocks, analysts reckon that the pressure on the rupee is likely to persist unless there is a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade talks. A U.S. trade delegation is expected to visit New Delhi this week for talks, an Indian government source said last week. Asian currencies were mostly on the defensive, with the Indonesian rupiah leading losses in the region while the dollar index was steady at 98.98 as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy outcome on Wednesday. The dollar eased on Monday, ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings and headlined by the U.S. Federal Reserve, where an interest rate cut is all but priced in, although a highly divided committee makes for a wild card. That could support the dollar if it pushes investors to dial back expectations for two or three rate cuts next year, though messaging could be complicated by policymakers' division as several have already all but indicated their voting intentions. Even though the U.S. currency has drifted lower for the past three weeks, dollar bulls have recovered some of their bottle. Weekly positioning data shows speculators hold their largest long position - one that assumes the value of the dollar will rise - since before President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff bombshell that sent the currency tumbling. Beyond U.S. monetary policy, the euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1652, lifted by higher euro zone bond yields. German 30-year yields hit their highest since 2011 in early trading. The Australian dollar briefly touched a high of $0.6649, the highest since mid-September, to last trade down 0.1% on the day at $0.6635. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday after a run of hot data on inflation, economic growth and household spending. Futures imply the next move will be up and possibly as soon as May, leaving the focus on the post-meeting statement and media conference. The Bank of Canada is also widely expected to leave its interest rate on hold on Wednesday and a hike is fully priced by December 2026. The currency was steady at C$1.3819 on Monday, having hit 10-week highs on Friday following strong jobs data. The yen , which has stabilised in this past week, having weakened sharply in November, was mostly steady at 155.44 per dollar, while sterling held around $1.3325 and the Swiss franc was a touch stronger at 0.804 francs.  Oil prices declined on Monday as investors monitored ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine ahead of an expected U.S Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week. Brent crude futures fell by 57 cents, or 0.9%, to $63.18 a barrel by 1053 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.48, down 60 cents, or 1%.

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