CURRENCY OVERVIEW
The Rupee opened on the weaker end on the final trading day of the year, due to supportive moves in Asian currencies and favourable near-term momentum. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open marginally higher versus the U.S. dollar, having advanced 0.2% on Tuesday to settle at 89.79. Trading volumes are expected to be thin on the final day of the year, with moves in the Chinese yuan and the Reserve Bank of India's likely defence of the 90 level the main talking points, a currency trader at a bank said. The offshore yuan inched up in Asian trade to 6.9850 per dollar, hovering near its highest since September 2024. The currency has rallied nearly 5% against the dollar this year and about 10% versus the rupee. Analysts say the yuan's rally reflect a weaker dollar, policy comfort with appreciation and improving sentiment toward Chinese assets. The rupee, in contrast, has won little relief despite the dollar softness, constrained by high U.S. tariffs and lacklustre flows. The dollar index has fallen 9.5% in 2025. Meanwhile, according to minutes of the latest two-day session from the Federal Reserve at its December 9-10 meeting, the central bank agreed to reduce rates only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the U.S. economy right now. The U.S. dollar held steady on Wednesday but was headed for its biggest annual drop since 2017 as interest rate cuts, fiscal worries and erratic trade policies under U.S. President Donald Trumpcast a shadow on currency markets in 2025. Adding to the dollar's woes, concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence under the Trump administration remain in focus. Trump said he plans to announce his pick for the next Fed chair sometime in January, replacing Jerome Powell whose term ends in May and who has faced constant bashing from the president. Japanese markets are closed for the rest of the week, and with most markets closed on Thursday for the New Year's Day holiday, volumes are likely to be razor-thin. The euro was steady at $1.1747 and the pound last bought $1.3463 on the last trading day of the year. Both are poised for their biggest yearly gains in eight years. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency versus six other major units, was at 98.228, holding onto its overnight gains. The index has declined 9.5% in 2025 while the euro gained 13.5% and the pound surged 7.6%. The dollar's weakness in 2025 has helped push many of the major currencies as well as emerging markets to strong gains for the year. China's yuan broke through the key psychological level of seven to the dollar on Tuesday for the first time in 2-1/2 years, defying weaker central bank guidance. The currency is on course for a 4% increase in the year, its sharpest gain since 2020. The Japanese yen is one of the few currencies that failed to take advantage of the soft dollar in 2025, broadly flat for the year even as the Bank of Japan raised rates twice during the period, once in January and another earlier this month. On Wednesday, the yen was steady at 156.35 per U.S. dollar, slowly grinding away from the levels that brought intervention worries and severe jawboning from officials in Tokyo. Investors have been disappointed with the slow and cautious pace of monetary tightening, with the significant long yen position in April completely reversing by the end of the year. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar last fetched $0.66965, poised for an over 8% surge in the year, its best year since 2020. The New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.57875 but was set for a 3.4% rise in the year, snapping a four-year losing streak. Oil prices slipped more than 10% in 2025, with Brent heading for its longest stretch of annual losses ever, as supply outpaced demand in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs and OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Brent crude futures , down nearly 18% - the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2018 - are on track for a third straight year of losses. The March contract, which expires on Wednesday, fell 6 cents to $61.27 a barrel at 0147 GMT.
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The rupee closed modestly weaker on Wednesday as dollar demand from local corporates and on account of maturing positions in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market blunted positive cues from gains in most regional peers. The rupee ended at 89.7850 per U.S. dollar, down about 0.1% on the day. Most Asian currencies edged higher but traders said local flow dynamics continued to dominate price action for the rupee, even though it has bounced back from the record-low levels hit last week. The maturity of positions in the NDF market also spurred dollar-buy bids at the daily reference rate, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. While price-action in the spot market was largely contained, dollar-rupee forward premiums declined sharply after the Reserve Bank of India announced it will conduct a 3-year $10 billion FX swap next month. The 1-month dollar rupee forward premium fell nearly 15 paisa and the 3-year forward premium was down over 50 paisa. The Japanese yen gained modestly against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as traders focused on whether weakness in the Japanese currency will prompt officials in the country to intervene. Volumes are light ahead of Thursday’s Christmas Day holiday, when U.S. and many international markets will be closed. The Japanese currency was last up 0.25% on the day against the U.S. dollar at 155.84 per dollar. The dollar reached 157.77 yen on Friday. The dollar was otherwise mixed. The dollar index , which measures it against a basket of other currencies, including the yen and the euro, rose 0.07% to 97.96, with the euro down 0.14% at $1.1778. Sterling weakened 0.13% to $1.3498. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.07% to $0.6705 and the Canadian dollar gained 0.11% to C$1.367 per U.S. dollar. The U.S. currency has fallen this year as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with more easing expected next year while analysts expect other central banks to have completed their rate reductions. Oil settled marginally lower on Wednesday, and prices were on course for their steepest annual decline since 2020 as investors weighed U.S. economic growth and assessed the risk of supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia. Brent crude futures closed down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $62.24 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased 3 cents, or 0.05%, to $58.29