CURRENCY OVERVIEW
The Rupee closed strong as it had its best week since January 2023, as an Iran-Israel ceasefire cooled oil prices and sapped safe-haven dollar demand, while worries over the Federal Reserve's future independence added pressure on the greenback. The rupee gained 1.3% on the week, its best performance in two and a half years, to close at 85.4750 per U.S. dollar on Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar index was down 1.5% on the week as investors, unnerved by fresh signs of an erosion in U.S. central bank independence, wasted no time in pushing the greenback back to its lowest levels in over three years. While currencies like the Korean won and offshore Chinese yuan are up between 2% and 9% this year so far, the rupee is little changed. The dollar hit a fresh three-and-a-half-year low against the euro on Friday as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more times and possibly sooner than previously expected as some U.S. data points to a weakening economy. The dollar index fell 0.15% to 97.23 while the euro was last up 0.21% to $1.1723. The single currency reached $1.1754, the highest since September 2021. The euro got a small uplift after data showed French consumer prices rose more than expected in June, while Spain's 12-month EU-harmonised inflation also inched higher. Fed rate cuts would reduce the interest rate advantage of the dollar relative to peers. Traders are pricing in 65 basis points of cuts by year end, up from 46 basis points a week ago. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.19% to 144.65. The pound was set for its biggest weekly gain against the dollar in nearly four months on Friday and held close to its near four-year high hit the previous day, though that was more due to dollar weakness than sterling strength. The pound was last up 0.14% on the dollar at $1.13745, just off Thursday's top of $1.37701, the highest since late 2021. The pound has gained 2.2% against the dollar this week, its most since early March, as the greenback's short-lived gains during the Israel-Iran conflict fade. The main domestic support for the pound this year has come from the Bank of England being slower to cut interest rates than peers, particularly the European Central Bank, as inflation remains sticky. Gold fell 2% on Thursday, hitting a near one-month low, after a U.S.-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite and diminished bullion's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold eased 1.7% to $3,271.59 per ounce by 1130 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT), after dropping to its lowest level since May 29 earlier in the session. Bullion was down for a second straight week, slipping 2.8% so far. Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell on Friday, reversing gains after a report that OPEC+ was planning to hike production in August following an increase planned for July. Brent crude futures were down 25 cents, or 0.37%, to $67.48 a barrel by 1615 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $65.04.