CURRENCY OVERVIEW
The rupee snapped an eight-session-long winning streak on Thursday as Brent oil prices climbed to their highest since May on deepening worries about conflict in the Middle East, which hammered global equities as well. Rupee endured a volatile trading session, swinging from its strongest level in over six weeks to close down 0.4% at 94.8175 per dollar. Earlier in the day, chunky foreign inflows for Jio Platforms' IPO added to tailwinds from the Reserve Bank of India's defensive measures that had boosted the currency but its gains faded as oil prices climbed in the latter half. Traders pointed to broad-based dollar demand locally alongside broader signs of a risk-off move in global markets. Oil prices have remained elevated despite oil flows from the Gulf holding up, reflecting market anxieties over the conflict. Brent oil prices were last up 3.3% at $112.40 per barrel. India imports nearly 90% of its crude requirements, making it one of the world's most vulnerable economies to the Middle East oil shock. This remains a key risk for the rupee. The pound edged up on Thursday, as outflows from euro zone assets saw UK stocks, bonds and the currency outperform other markets in the region. Sterling was up 0.1% on the day at $1.34, making it one of the stronger performers, aside from the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc . Money markets show traders expect the Bank of England to deliver at least three quarter-point rate hikes by April, with the first one priced in for the November 5 policy meeting, compared with roughly two hikes by the European Central Bank, thereby widening the interest-rate differential that fuels carry trades. Investor concern about high oil prices, the cost of the AI buildout and the ability of developed-market governments to bring down their huge debt loads rattled riskier assets, particularly in Europe, where French bond yields rose to new 24-year highs and euro zone stocks fell sharply. Over the course of the last month, the pound has been the best-performing major currency against the US dollar, up 0.3%, while the euro is the worst-performing, with a loss of 2%. The euro is heading for a fourth straight week of declines against the pound , having lost another 0.5% so far this week, which brings its decline for the year to 1.8%. The yen was on track for its strongest daily gain in almost a month on Thursday, as investors sought safety amid fragile equity markets. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.75% to 156.96 per dollar. Some of the move in the yen may also be due to its approaching the key 160 level, which is seen as increasing the odds of further intervention by Japanese authorities to shore up the currency. Against the Swiss franc , another traditional safe haven, the dollar weakened 0.42% to 0.821 francs per dollar. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.08% to 101.60, with the euro down 0.09% at $1.1222. The dollar has become increasingly tied to capital flows and to growth and inflation expectations linked to the AI trade. It fell last week as fears over the AI outlook grew. On Thursday, however, concerns about France outweighed those fears. Similarly impacted by oil, Gold fell to its lowest level in more than two months on Thursday, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, while investors looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Spot gold slid 2.4% to $4,041.39 per ounce by 2:05 p.m. EDT (1805 GMT), its lowest level since August 3. US gold futures for December delivery settled 2.2% lower at $4,060.40 per ounce. Among other metals, spot silver dropped 5.4% to $54.84 per ounce, platinum slid 3.7% to $1,570.85 - its lowest since July 17, while palladium fell 2.7% to $1,057.83 - its lowest level since June 2025.
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