GLOBAL NEWS-
China’s economic growth cooled slightly in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as expected, weighed down by weak investment and faltering consumer confidence as Washington piled on trade pressure, leaving 2018 growth the weakest in 28 years.Fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis, easing to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent in the third quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 6.4 percent.That left full-year growth at 6.6 percent, the slowest rate of expansion China has seen since 1990. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected it to cool to 6.6 percent from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.Weakening activity and signs of rising unemployment underline a pressing need for more economic support measures as Beijing wrestles with the United States over trade.
Chinese oil refiners raised their output to a record in 2018, led by state-run oil majors which maximized operations on firm profit-margins and private refiners which increased processing after being granted higher crude import quotas.
The dollar held steady near a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, as investor risk appetite held up despite the latest data showing China’s 2018 economic growth slowing to a near three-decade low.The dollar index, which measures its strength against a group of six major currencies, was steady at 96.308 .DXY after climbing to 96.394 percent on Friday, its strongest since Jan. 4.Hopes for a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, a more dovish-sounding Federal Reserve and optimism that Britain could avoid a “No-Deal” Brexit are some of the factors that have fanned the return in investor risk appetite, which went into a deep freeze in December as global equity markets tumbled.
The United States is pushing for regular reviews of China’s progress on pledged trade reforms as a condition for a trade deal - and could again resort to tariffs if it deems Beijing has violated the agreement, according to sources briefed on negotiations to end the trade war between the two nations.A continuing threat of tariffs hanging over commerce between the world’s two largest economies would mean a deal would not end the risk of investing in businesses or assets that have been impacted by the trade war.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday there has been progress toward a trade deal with China, but denied that he was considering lifting tariffs on Chinese imports.
Asian markets kept their nerve on Monday as data showed the Chinese economy slowed at the end of last year, underlining the urgent need for more stimulus as Beijing wrestles with the United States over trade.Investors are also waiting to hear British Prime Minister Theresa May’s ‘Plan B’ for Brexit which is due to be presented to parliament later on Monday.The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, as had been expected and matching levels last seen in early 2009 during the global financial crisis.Yet there were some bright spots with industrial output rising a surprisingly strong 5.7 percent, while retail sales rose 8.2 percent in December, from a year earlier.Markets reacted calmly, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.4 percent, after rising 1.6 percent last week.
Analysts have trimmed forecasts for Australian economic growth following some disappointing numbers last year, but still tip solid outcomes ahead even in the face of falling house prices and a slowdown in China.Economists polled by Reuters forecast Australia’s A$1.87 trillion ($1.34 trillion) of annual gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.0 percent in 2018, down from 3.2 percent in an October poll.The downgrade reflects a surprisingly soft outcome in the third quarter of last year which soured what had been a strong first half. Data for the fourth quarter is not due until early March, though signs are that growth might be moderate at best.The economy is then seen running around 2.7 percent through 2019 and 2020, further extending the country’s 26-year stretch without a recession.
Chances that Japan will slide into a recession this coming fiscal year have grown over the past three months, a Reuters poll of economists found, pressured by a global economic slowdown and U.S.-China trade friction.Economists said while Japan will probably manage to avoid a recession in the year starting in April, growing 0.8 percent, the outlook is shaky.That bodes poorly for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to raise the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October to cope with swelling welfare costs as the country’s population ages.Japan has felt the indirect impact of the U.S.-China trade war because it makes equipment and supplies used by Chinese manufacturers of semiconductors, mobile phones and other products.The latest data showed Japan’s export growth slowed to a crawl in November as shipments to the United States and China weakened sharply.
Parliament cannot be allowed to hijack Brexit, Trade Minister Liam Fox said on Sunday, in a warning to lawmakers who want to take more control over Britain’s departure from the European Union.With just weeks to go before Britain is due to leave the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May will return to parliament on Monday to set out how she plans to try to break the Brexit deadlock after her deal was rejected by lawmakers last week.As she tries to navigate a way through competing visions for the future from a second referendum to staying in the EU, May told ministers on Sunday she was looking for ways to make the so-called Northern Irish backstop more acceptable to her Conservative Party and Northern Irish allies.
Gold prices held steady on Monday as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause its multi-year interest rate hike cycle, were offset by a recovery in investor appetite for risk.Spot gold was trading up 0.1 percent at $1,282.31 per ounce by 0306 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,282 per ounce.“Dovish signals (from the Fed) have kept dollar strength in check, helping gold. But on the other hand, we have seen them easing bearish sentiments in equity markets,” said Benjamin Lu, analyst at Phillip Futures, Singapore.
Oil prices rose to their highest for 2019 on Monday after data showed refinery processing in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, climbed to a record in 2018, despite a slowing economy last year.Prices are further being supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), analysts said.International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.94 per barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. Brent earlier rose above $63 for the first time in 2019. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $54.05 a barrel, up 25 cents, or 0.5 percent. It was the first time this year that WTI rose above $54 a barrel.Traders said the price rises came afer data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed crude oil refinery throughput climbed to record 603.57 million tonnes in 2018, or 12.12 million barrels per day (bpd), up 6.8 percent from the previous year.
The strong oil demand figures came despite China’s 2018 economic growth slowing to the weakest in 28 years, at 6.6 percent versus 6.8 percent in 2017.Researchers at Bernstein Energy said the supply cuts led by OPEC “will move the market back into supply deficit” for most of 2019 and that should cause prices to rise to $70 a barrel before the end of the year.