GLOBAL NEWS-
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday OPEC’s job in rebalancing the oil market was far from done as global inventories were still rising despite harsh U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, signalling it may need to expand output cuts into the second half of 2019.Russia, which is cutting oil output in tandem with OPEC, also said production cuts would stay in place at least until June, when Washington’s next steps on reducing Iran’s and Venezuela’s oil exports become clearer.The United States has been increasing its own oil exports steeply in recent months while imposing sanctions on Venezuela and Iran to reduce their shipments to global markets.Washington’s policies have introduced a new level of uncertainty for OPEC as it struggles to predict the balance of global supply and demand.OPEC and its allies have cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day - or 1.2 percent of global demand - since January to help rebalance the global oil market and prop up prices.OPEC is due to meet in April and then again in June to decide its output policies.The United States has imposed stiff sanctions on OPEC’s third largest oil producer, Iran, but has given some waivers to buyers of its crude until May.
British companies look set to cut investment by the most in 10 years in 2019 because of Brexit, even if Prime Minister Theresa May gets a deal to ease the country out of the bloc, an employers group said on Monday.Business investment was forecast to fall by an annual 1.0 percent in 2019, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said.Weak investment by companies drags on productivity which puts a brake on wage rises and weighs on the overall economy.
Japan’s exports fell for a third month in February in a sign of growing strain on the trade-reliant economy, suggesting the central bank might be forced to offer more stimulus eventually to temper the effects of slowing external demand and trade frictions.Slowing global growth, the Sino-U.S. trade war and complications over Britain’s exit from the European Union have already forced many policymakers to shift to an easing stance over recent months.Japan is in a similar situation to much of the rest of the world, where factories have slammed on the brakes and business confidence has plummeted in the wake of rising global economic uncertainty.Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday exports fell 1.2 percent year-on-year in February, more than a 0.9 percent decrease expected.
Only two things will really matter when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strides to the podium for his press conference on Wednesday after the end of the U.S. central bank’s latest two-day policy meeting: Dots and bonds.That Powell and his colleagues will leave the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in a range of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent and stick to their pledge of a “patient” approach to monetary policy is effectively a given.The big reveal, though, will be whether policymakers will have sufficiently lowered their interest rate forecasts to more closely align their notorious “dot plot,” a diagram showing individual policymakers’ rate views for the next three years in little blue-shaded circles, with that pledge of patience.
President Donald Trump’s trade battles cost the U.S. economy $7.8 billion in lost gross domestic product in 2018, a study by a team of economists at leading American universities published this week showed.Authors of the paper said they analysed the short-run impact of Trump’s actions and found that imports from targeted countries declined 31.5 percent while targeted U.S. exports fell by 11 percent. They also found that annual consumer and producer losses from higher costs of imports totalled $68.8 billion.“After accounting for higher tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers from higher prices, the aggregate welfare loss was $7.8 billion,” or 0.04 percent of GDP.
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $9.60 billion in February, dragged down by a fall in gold and oil imports, the trade ministry said in a statement on Friday.Trade deficit was $14.73 billion in January.In February, merchandise exports rose 2.44 percent from a year earlier to $26.67 billion, while imports were down 5.41 percent to $36.26 billion, data showed.Gold imports in February fell 10.81 percent year-on-year to $2.58 billion, compared to $2.90 billion during the same month a year ago.
With a federal election looming and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government facing its worst political crisis in four years, Canada’s ruling Liberals are expected to table a goody-filled budget later this week in bid to get back on course with voters.Trudeau’s Liberals surged to power in 2015 on a pledge to jolt the economy by boosting spending, but their popularity has dropped sharply in recent weeks amid claims that Canada’s former Justice Minister was pressured to help construction firm SNC-Lavalin avoid a criminal trial.Adding to the pain, economic growth slowed sharply at the end of 2018 and, despite blockbuster job gains, Canadians are feeling increasingly pessimistic about the future as record household debt runs up against higher interest rates.
Oil prices dipped on Monday amid concerns that an economic downturn may dent fuel consumption, but crude markets remain broadly supported by supply cuts led by producer group OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.Brent crude oil futures were at $67.03 per barrel at 0231 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close, but not far off the $68.14 per barrel 2019-high reached last week.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $58.32 per barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement, and also not far off their 2019-high of $58.95 from the previous week. “The greatest downside risk to our oil price view is demand weakness on slower economic growth. Our base case is that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019. A synchronized global slowdown in growth could push global demand growth to below 1 million bpd.