The Indian rupee strengthened for the fourth straight session on Thursday, aided by a broadly weaker dollar, lower oil prices and a surge in stocks, as well as a likely central bank intervention. The rupee ended 0.1% higher at 95.0550 per dollar. The currency has risen 2% so far this week after coming near record low levels last week. Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose to multi-year highs on Thursday after the central bank's latest foreign exchange curbs rattled markets, sapping liquidity and making it difficult for traders to manage exposures, several bankers said. India has used up about half of the more than $140 billion it mobilized through special measures to bolster its foreign exchange war chest earlier this year, highlighting pressure on the rupee and the central bank's determination to turn the tide, according to estimates from economists and FX traders. The one-year implied hedging cost has jumped more than 90 basis points this week to 4.6%, its highest since January 2022 and well above the roughly 2% implied by the India-U.S. interest-rate differential. The moves were sharper in shorter tenors, with the three-month implied hedging cost at 7.2%, against a theoretical 1.5%. There seems to have been a challenge amongst trader today to quote swaps properly. The moves were sharper in shorter tenors, with the three-month implied hedging cost at 7.2%, against a theoretical 1.5%. The strain extended to overnight swaps, used by banks to manage daily rupee and dollar funding. One-day swap costs rose to around 2 paise, more than four times usual levels, partly driven by the RBI's sell/buy swaps. The one-month deliverable dollar/rupee forward premium was last quoted at around 60 paise, compared with 50 paise offshore. An unchecked rise in forward premiums could further raise hedging costs for companies with dollar liabilities, while amplifying mark-to-market losses for traders holding received positions and prompting further position-cutting .The dollar slipped from an 18-month peak on Thursday as a sharp drop in Treasury yields weighed on the greenback, while cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials tempered October hike expectations despite hot inflation data. The dollar index , which measures the US currency against a basket of peers, was last down 0.2% on the day at 102.03, having hit an 18-month high on Wednesday after US inflation figures came in stronger than expected. The rally in US government bonds pushed the benchmark 10-year yield to 5.085% while the 30-year yield fell to 5.428%, both at around three-week lows. Sterling was headed for its biggest daily rise against the dollar since mid-August on Thursday as the greenback weakened and data showed that Britain's economy unexpectedly grew in August. The pound was last up 0.5% to $1.3253, helped by a 0.15% slip in the dollar . A drop in US Treasury yields and stock market jitters weighed on the greenback in a "risk-off" environment, with traders navigating the macroeconomic backdrop and interest rate expectations. The euro was also buoyed by the dollar's dip, leaving sterling steady against the common currency at 84.60 pence per euro. Unlike other major central banks like the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve, the BoE has not hiked interest rates this year. Money markets are, however, pricing in at least one 25-basis point increase from the BoE by year-end. Brent crude prices fell around 1% on Thursday as potential US steps to ease restrictions on Russia's "shadow fleet" tankers soothed high price concerns, but attacks on ships in ?the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure limited the decline. The international benchmark fell $1.03, or 0.97%, to $105.03 a barrel by 1326 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up by $1.04, or 1.09%, to $96.13 a barrel, driven by expectations for a large draw in weekly US inventories. Official numbers from the US Energy Information Administration are due at 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT), delayed by a day following the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. Gold prices climbed more than 1% on Thursday as the dollar ?and US Treasury yields remained under pressure, while investors looked to fresh US inflation data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this month. Spot gold was up 1.3% to $4,156.58 per ounce by 1124 GMT. US gold futures for December delivery rose 1.7% to $4,178.50 per ounce. Among other metals, spot silver gained 1.9% to $56.69 per ounce, platinum rose 0.7% to $1,617.50 per ounce and palladium climbed 3.5% to $1,132 per ounce.
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