The Rupee opened steady on Thursday, helped by a softer dollar on bets of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, though bankers cautioned that the currency has struggled to sustain any relief rallies. Through this week, the rupee has struggled to translate supportive Asian cues into lasting traction. On two occasions, first on Monday and then again on Tuesday, the currency slipped into the 89–89.10 zone, sparking optimism of a recovery. However, bankers said there was no real follow-through, with importers and a small pocket of speculators buying the dollar/rupee pair on dips. The dollar index dipped in Asia, putting it on track for a fifth straight day of decline. The gauge is down about 0.8% so far this week, pressured by mounting confidence that the Fed will deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut next month. Rate cut odds have undergone a significant shift in the span of a week, from roughly one-in-three to almost 85% now. A run of dovish commentary from Fed officials, led by New York Fed President John Williams, has prompted investors to reprice the policy outlook, undermining the dollar. The dollar was on the back foot on Thursday, with trade thinned ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and investors turning to the coming year where a series of U.S. interest rate cuts are priced in. The yen drifted 0.4% higher to 155.87 per dollar and the euro clambered above $1.16 in morning trade. A resurgent New Zealand dollar skipped out to a three-week peak of $0.5714 following a hawkish shift at the central bank and strong economic data. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates on Wednesday but said that a hold was discussed and flagged that the easing cycle was likely over, with markets shifting to price in an interest rate hike by December next year. That contrasts with more than 90 basis points of cuts priced for the U.S. Federal Reserve between now and the end of 2026. Data showed New Zealand retail sales rose in the third quarter, while business confidence jumped to its highest in a year. Australia's 10-year rate of 4.48% is the highest in the G10, which analysts point out makes the currency look cheap. At $0.6526 the Aussie is in the middle of a channel where it has traded for about 18 months. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale, however, notes it has more closely tracked China's yuan than interest rates lately - which could support further gains as the yuan has climbed sharply in recent sessions. Pushback from China's central bank fixing mechanism steadied the yuan at the open on Thursday. Sterling inched up to its highest since late October at $1.3256 and was on course for the largest weekly rise since August as Britain's budget alleviated some concerns about the national finances. The U.S. dollar index was flat at 99.433, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July. Oil prices fell on Thursday on expectations of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire which could pave the way for the unwinding of Western sanctions against Russian supply, though trading was set to remain thin due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Brent crude futures shed 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.92 a barrel as of 0108 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $58.44 a barrel.......
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