GLOBAL NEWS-
Japan’s factory output is expected to have slipped for a second straight month in December, a Reuters poll found on Friday, in yet another sign slowing global demand and trade frictions would hobble the economy for much of this year.Industrial production was forecast to fall 0.4 percent in December from the previous month after a 1.0 percent decline in November, the poll of 16 economists showed.
The United States and China are “miles and miles” from resolving trade issues but there is a fair chance the two countries will get a deal, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday.A 30-member Chinese delegation plans to come to Washington next week for talks, he said, as the world’s two largest economies try to meet a March 1 deadline to resolve their trade disputes, but Ross tried to tamp down expectations for the high-level talks.“Trade is very complicated, there’s lots and lots of issues - not just how many soybeans and how much LNG.”More important, he said, were the structural reforms that Washington believes are needed in the Chinese economy, as well as enforcement mechanisms for failure to adhere to whatever is agreed to.
Tokyo’s core consumer price inflation picked up slightly more than expected in January due to higher energy prices, but Japan’s central bank still has a long way to achieve its elusive 2 percent inflation target.The Bank of Japan on Wednesday cut its consumer inflation forecasts and maintained its massive stimulus program, with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warning of growing risks to the economy from protectionism and faltering demand.Core consumer prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, rose 1.1 percent in January from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday.The rise in the core consumer price index for Japan’s capital, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, compared with the median estimate of a 0.9 percent increase in a Reuters poll of economists.
Ireland’s central bank warned on Friday that a no-deal Brexit could knock as much as 4 percentage points off the Irish economy’s growth rate in its first full year and by up to 6 percentage points over a decade.The “worst-case” Brexit scenario, presented alongside the central bank’s official forecasts for 2019, would see British demand for Irish goods collapse while fresh falls in sterling weigh on the competitiveness of Irish exporters.Ireland’s economy has been the best performing in Europe since 2014, but in Ireland’s central bank warned on Friday that a no-deal Brexit could knock as much as 4 percentage points off the Irish economy’s growth rate in its first full year and by up to 6 percentage points over a decade.The “worst-case” Brexit scenario, presented alongside the central bank’s official forecasts for 2019, would see British demand for Irish goods collapse while fresh falls in sterling weigh on the competitiveness of Irish exporters.Ireland’s economy has been the best performing in Europe since 2014, but in its latest quarterly
According to the bank, a “disorderly Brexit” would have “material and immediate economic implications” that its analysis suggests could lower GDP growth in 2019 to around 1.5 percent.The economy would only escape a bigger hit this year because growth is expected to remain strong in the first three months of the year, before Britain’s scheduled departure.
Asian stocks rose across the board on Friday, buoyed by gains in U.S. technology shares while investors awaited several key events next week including U.S.-China trade talks.The euro struggled near a six-week low versus the dollar following dovish-sounding comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who expressed concerns about the euro zone economy. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.95 percent to scale its highest since Dec. 4.The index was headed for a gain of 0.6 percent this week, with strong corporate earnings helping somewhat to counter growing concerns over slowing global economic growth.The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6 percent.
Venezuela will close its embassy and all consulates in the United States, President Nicolas Maduro said on Thursday, one day after he broke off diplomatic relations in response to U.S. recognition of an opposition leader as interim president.In a speech, Maduro added that he agreed with a call by Mexico and Uruguay for dialogue between Venezuela’s government and opposition for a resolution to the South American country’s political crisis.U.S. oil prices rose by 1 percent on Thursday, boosted by the U.S. threat of sanctions on Venezuela, but gains were capped by record high gasoline inventories and an unexpected big build in crude stocks in the United States.
Britain and Switzerland have agreed to allow insurers to trade freely between the two countries after Brexit, Britain’s finance ministry said on Friday.The deal will replicate the effects of the European Union’s insurance agreement with Switzerland and will come into force once that agreement ceases to apply in Britain.
British finance minister, Philip Hammond, and Ueli Maurer, president of the Swiss Confederation, signed the agreement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Both are home to major global insurers such as Swiss Re, Zurich Insurance Links to financial industries like the Swiss insurance market are important for global financial systems and it’s vital that trade continues between our two countries so firms have the certainty they need to continue to do business and invest in the UK’s bright future,” Hammond said in a statement.The agreement allows insurers to open branches in each other’s jurisdictionsGroup, Aviva and Prudential.
China’s soybean imports from the United States plunged 99 percent in December to just 69,298 tons, customs data showed on Friday, taking its full-year 2018 imports to the lowest level since 2008 amid an ongoing trade war.It was the second month in a row when Chinese imports from the United States ground to a virtual halt amid the tit-for-tat dispute, although some buying has since resumed as talks between the world’s two largest economies continue.U.S. shipments in December fell from 6.19 million tons a year earlier. China did not import any U.S. beans in November.For the full year, imports from the U.S. were at 16.6 million tons, about half of 2017’s 32.9 million tons.By contrast, China brought in 4.39 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in December, up 126 percent from 1.94 million tons a year ago, according to the data from the General Administration of Customs.
China’s imports of pork from the United States more than halved to about 263,000 tons in 2018, customs data showed on Friday, after Beijing imposed hefty tariffs on the meat as part of a trade war.The 55 percent fall was across both quality cuts and offal, where the United States has previously accounted for about a third of China’s imports. U.S. offal shipments fell 58 percent to 177,041 tons, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs.China is the world’s main buyer of pigs feet, as well as other items like ears, elbows and innards, providing a source of revenue for U.S. processors which can barely sell such products at home.
Gold prices edged higher on Friday amid concerns that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could exacerbate an already slowing global growth, while markets awaited U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for next week.Spot gold rose 0.2 percent at $1,282.50 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,281.40 per ounce.Investors are worried about the economic impact of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, now in its 34th day, with two bills to end the partial shutdown failing to win enough votes in the Senate.“There are some positive features supporting gold like the U.S. government shutdown, ongoing trade war and potential for slower rate hikes.
Oil prices rose by more than one percent on Friday as turmoil in Venezuela triggered concerns that its oil exports could soon be disrupted.Washington on Thursday signalled it could impose sanctions on Venezuela’s crude exports as Caracas descends further into political and economic turmoil.International Brent crude oil futures were at $61.89 a barrel, 80 cents, or 1.3 percent, above their last close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.90 per barrel, up 77 cents, or 1.5 percent.Washington signaled it could impose sanctions on Venezuela’s crude exports as Caracas descends further into political and economic turmoil. The threat to reduce supplies supported futures prices.The United States, the top importer of Venezuelan crude, is seeking to ensure that the OPEC member’s oil revenue goes to opposition leader Juan Guaido, who swore himself in as interim president, and to cut off money from President Nicolas Maduro, a top U.S. official said on Thursday.